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The latest weather warnings from NWS Ruskin, Tampa Bay Area

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FXUS62 KTBW 261731

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
131 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Some isolated to widely scattered shra/tsra may impact KPGD,
KFMY, KLAL, and KRSW terminals between 20-24Z and have
included VCTS at these sites, otherwise VFR will prevail.
Some brief IFR vsbys from patchy fog may also impact KPGD
and KLAL between 09-13Z Wednesday morning, otherwise VFR
will continue. West winds in the 7 to 10 knot range this
afternoon will become light and variable after 02Z tonight,
then becoming west at 6 to 8 knots Wednesday afternoon as
the sea breeze redevelops and moves inland.


.Prev Discussion... /issued 943 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017/

Weak high pressure to the northwest and hurricane Maria
moving slowly north over the Atlantic east of the mid
Atlantic coast will allow some drier mid level air to
filter into the forecast area the remainder of the day.
This drier air should keep overall rain chances below
normal, however adequate low level moisture combined with
daytime heating should result in isolated to widely
scattered shower/storm development over inland locations
along the sea breeze during the afternoon and across
southern most locations where better moisture will reside
while mainly dry conditions are expected from the Bay area
north into the Nature Coast. Afternoon temperatures will
climb toward 90 along the coast prior to the onset of the
sea breeze, with lower 90s expected over inland areas.
High-Res model output and ongoing forecast concurs with
this so a morning update will not be required at this time.

Light winds and slight seas are being observed over the Gulf
waters early this morning, and little change to current
conditions expected through the afternoon with a weak
pressure pattern supporting an onshore sea breeze
component around 10 knots developing along the coast during
the afternoon. Ongoing forecast is on track with no changes
expected in the next forecast issuance around 10 AM.

While moderate to major flooding continues on the
Withlacoochee River in Pasco and Hernando Counties, the
river is slowly receding. As the water routes farther
downstream, minor flooding is still forecasted to begin
over the next couple of days in Northern Citrus County. The
Withlacoochee River has not flooded in some of these
locations within the last 10+ years. Elsewhere, levels
continue to recede along most of West Central Florida's
rivers. With no widespread rainfall expected over the next
several days, additional flooding is not expected to occur.
Most of the flooding that occurred from Hurricane Irma
resulted in the worst flooding many places have seen in the
last 50-70 years. For example, the official crest on the
Peace River At Arcadia of 19.20 feet was the 3rd highest on
record and the worst flooding since 1933.

Gulf waters...None.



Covering Levy, Citrus, Sumter, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk, Manatee, Hardee, Highlands, Desoto, Sarasota, Charlotte and Lee Counties...

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Current Warning Map Legend
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