FXUS62 KTBW 091635
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1235 PM EDT THU SEP 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO
JACKSONVILLE. DEEP MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS WERE FOUND ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. LIGHT FLOW NEAR RIDGE AXIS MEANS SLOW
MOVING STORMS WITH ISOLATED 3+ INCH RAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 4. SOUTHEASTEASTELRY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE SHOWERS
IN FAR SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE FORT MYERS AND SEBRING AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE LIGHTNING NETWORK DOES NOT YET DETECT ANY STRIKES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
WILL BECOME ISOLATED THIS EVENING AS SUNSET IS NOW BEFORE 8 PM.

SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR STORM
LOCATION THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FRIDAY OF RAIN LOWER NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4
THAN SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW SATURDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN BACK TO
THE COAST FROM BRADENTON TO FORT MYERS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND ON SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH DRIVES
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN INTO NORTHERN FL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY...STILL EXPECTING THE DIURNALLY-BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL (40%) COVERAGE.

HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK WE'LL START TO SEE SOME CHANGES IN OUR
WEATHER PATTERN. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE EAST
COAST...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR PUSHING
DOWN INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. AS FLOW BECOMES
NORTHERLY DURING THE TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WE'LL NOT ONLY SEE SOME
LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY BUT ALSO SLIGHTLY COOLER (STILL
AROUND NORMAL HOWEVER) TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK SO
WHILE WE START OUT ON MONDAY WITH NEAR-NORMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...BY
TUESDAY WE'LL SEE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...
STILL ON TRACK TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
EACH OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE MOST FAVORABLE TIMES AT EACH SITE. AFTER
SUNSET...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A FEW LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
THEN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH HOWEVER WILL MEAN LESS COVERAGE OF
STORMS AT TPA AND PIE.


&&

.MARINE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD MEANS WINDS 10 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS MAINLY 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FAIR TO POOR DISPERSIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY DUE TO LIGHT
TRANSPORT WINDS. DISPERSIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...NO FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  91  78  92 /  20  30  20  40
FMY  76  92  77  93 /  20  50  20  50
GIF  76  93  75  94 /  20  50  10  40
SRQ  76  90  77  93 /  20  40  20  40
BKV  72  93  72  94 /  20  30  10  40
SPG  80  91  80  92 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...23/MCNATT



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