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FXUS62 KTBW 201928
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
328 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018
.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Thursday)...
The surface ridge axis will setup south of the area with a general
westerly flow becoming established. This type of pattern combined
with enough moisture will push the scattered convection inland
for the rest of today, but the steering flow does remain rather
light so a few storms could develop back toward the coast on
outflow boundaries into this evening. The convection will wind
later this evening, but late tonight more scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the gulf and move onshore
affecting coastal areas from about Sarasota county northward. Flow
will be a little bit stronger from the west northwest which will
help drive most of the convection quickly inland with the sea
breeze so the scattered storms near the coast in the morning will
shift inland and into the eastern half of the Florida peninsula by
late afternoon. Temperatures will remain near to a few degrees
above normal tonight with lows mostly in the 70s, possibly only
falling to around 80 near the coast thanks to the onshore flow.
Daytime highs on Thursday will be close to normal and climb into
the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Thursday Night - Tuesday)...
A robust upper-level trough will be swinging through the Ohio
Valley region on Friday, then off the eastern seaboard on
Saturday. A second upper-level trough will take a similar route
over the weekend, moving off the eastern seaboard on Monday. These
features will keep the surface Atlantic ridge of high pressure to
our south, placing our region in a westerly flow regime. As the
second trough moves off the east coast, the Atlantic ridge is
forecast to build back to the north bringing us back into a
primarily easterly flow regime for Tuesday.
For most of the period, the best rain coverage will be during the
afternoon hours, and mainly inland as westerly flow pushes sea
breeze boundaries quickly eastward. Late night and early morning
showers and storms will be possible near the coast.
By Tuesday, the shifting of the ridge axis to our north will allow
afternoon storms to favor coastal areas, with the best coverage
along and west of I-75.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
move/propagate south and east causing MVFR/local IFR conditions.
This convection should move away from the Tampa Bay TAF sites by
late afternoon, but will still be possible at the other TAF sites
into this evening. Mainly VFR conditions are expected outside of
the convection into early tonight. Late tonight some more MVFR
ceilings along with a couple of showers will be possible at TPA,
PIE, and SRQ as the southwest to west flow brings moisture in from
the gulf. This convection will continue to develop and move inland
during Thursday causing more MVFR/local IFR conditions.
The ridge of high pressure will sink south and hold across the
Florida Straits for the remainder of the week setting up westerly
flow across the waters. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the week, especially during the
late night and morning hours. Winds and seas could be higher near
these storms, otherwise hazardous boating conditions are not
The ridge of high pressure will setup across the Florida Straits
for the remainder of the week with a westerly flow across the
region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop near
the coast late each night and morning, then move inland and
becoming most numerous over the eastern half of the Florida
peninsula by late each afternoon and evening. Relative humidity
values will remain well above critical levels.
Fog Potential...No significant fog expected for the next several
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 79 89 80 89 / 20 40 30 40
FMY 78 92 78 90 / 10 20 10 20
GIF 76 92 76 91 / 30 50 10 50
SRQ 79 89 80 87 / 20 30 20 30
BKV 75 89 76 89 / 20 40 30 40
SPG 80 89 80 89 / 20 40 30 40
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/Close
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/Jillson
Covering Levy, Citrus, Sumter, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk,
Manatee, Hardee, Highlands, Desoto, Sarasota, Charlotte and Lee Counties...
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