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FXUS62 KTBW 230827
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
427 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
.SHORT TERM (Today-Monday)...
An upper trough will be moving over south Florida today as
an upper low pushes into the deep south tonight. The upper
low will then move over GA/N FL Monday. At the surface, a
weak trough will lift over south Florida today and bring a
chance to likely rain chances across much of the area with
the highest pops south and inland this afternoon. As the
trough pushes east, a cold front will then approach the area
from the NW. The front will then move through the area late
Sunday night through Monday afternoon with just a slight
chance of rain with the front. Winds will increase for
Monday and be gusty/breezy. Temperatures will be in the mid
to upper 80s this afternoon for highs and in the lower 60s
to lower 70s for lows tonight. Highs Monday will be cooler
behind the front in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night - Saturday)...
A deep closed low and attendant surface low moving off the southeast
U.S. coast at the start of the period will lift slowly north along
the eastern seaboard through Wednesday night. In its wake zonal flow
aloft, drier air, and weak surface high pressure will support
pleasant dry weather across the entire forecast area Tuesday through
Thursday with mainly clear nights and mostly sunny days expected
through the period.
During Friday through Saturday upper level ridging will build in
over the western Atlantic offshore the Carolinas and extending
southwest across Florida in response to an amplifying upper level
trough over the western U.S.. Attendant surface high pressure from
the Atlantic extending west across the northern peninsula will
support a low level southeast wind flow across the region. A slow
increase in moisture within the southeast flow may support some
isolated showers (Pops 20 percent) along the sea breeze boundaries
each day during the afternoon and early evening hours, otherwise
increasingly warm and humid conditions will prevail.
Near normal temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will soar to well
above normal Thursday through Saturday as upper ridging builds in
over the region with highs reaching into the mid and upper 80s along
the coast, and lower 90s over inland locations each afternoon, with
overnight lows in the mid and upper 60s inland areas, and around 70
to the lower 70 along the coast.
Some MVFR conditions will be possible overnight with light
winds in place. Winds will become SW in the late morning
with afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms possible
mainly across the southern terminals as winds continue to
turn to the W/NW.
A weak area of low pressure will be moving over south
Florida today as a cold front also approaches the area from
the NW. The front will move through the waters Sunday
night-Monday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be
possible with these systems and winds will increase on
Monday with the front. High pressure will then build over
the waters and be in place through the rest of the week. An
SCEC may be necessary on Monday as winds increase, but
otherwise no headlines are expected through the rest of the
No concerns for the next couple of days as conditions will
be moist with rain chances.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 86 70 78 64 / 20 20 20 0
FMY 85 70 82 65 / 50 20 20 0
GIF 89 67 81 61 / 60 40 20 0
SRQ 83 69 78 65 / 20 20 20 0
BKV 87 65 77 57 / 30 20 20 0
SPG 84 70 77 67 / 20 20 20 0
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael
Covering Levy, Citrus, Sumter, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk,
Manatee, Hardee, Highlands, Desoto, Sarasota, Charlotte and Lee Counties...
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