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FXUS62 KTBW 251123
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
723 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018
25/12Z TAFs. VFR. FEW-SCT CU/SC through the afternoon with some CI
in the south this morning. Light winds early this morning become
WNW 10-13KT late morning and afternoon.
.Prev Discussion... /issued 345 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018/
08Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis showing the Florida
peninsula under the axis of a passing longwave
trough...anchored to a closed low exiting the TN valley
toward the Carolinas. As this trough axis passes by...WV
imagery shows plenty of mid/upper level subsidence and dry
air overhead. Any kind of substantial moisture in the
column is generally below 850mb...and even this will be
slowly scoured out as we head through the first half of the
At the surface...a weak cold front is exiting south of the
Florida peninsula early this morning. Pressure gradient
between this front and high pressure over the north-central
Gulf coast is providing our region with a steady northwest
wind. Temperatures as we get closer to dawn are running
generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures may
fall another couple of degrees before sunrise, but dewpoints
suggest we are pretty close to our low temperatures for the
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Today...A dry and seasonable day is in store for west-
central and southwest Florida in the wake of weak departing
cold front. Plenty of sunshine can be expected with
northwest winds and high temperatures in the upper 70s to
near 80 at the coast...and lower 80s inland.
Tonight and Thursday...The next significant amplification to
the mid/upper level pattern will begin to evolve as a strong
shortwave trough evolves out of the central plains and
across the deep south. A surface cold front will accompany
this upper level energy...reaching the Florida Big Bend
region by Thursday evening. As this next front slowly
approaches, winds shift to the west and eventually southwest
during the daylight hours Thursday.
There is very good agreement among the reliable NWP
guidance (including all members of the GEFS) that the best
combination of synoptic lift and available column moisture
associated with this next approaching system will remain to
our north and westward through Thursday. With this in mind,
will keep mention of showers out of the forecast...even for
our far northern areas through Thursday evening. High
temperatures on Thursday should reach the lower to middle
80s for locations away from the coast...with middle 70s to
around 80 closer to the water due to the wind blowing off
the still relatively cooler shelf waters.
LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
A shortwave trough will be swinging through the
southeastern US Thursday night, staying well north of the
Florida Peninsula while another shortwave ejects from the
central plains into the southern Mississippi River Valley.
The first shortwave will drag a weak and mostly dry cold
front into the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico
Thursday night and Friday. Modest moisture return ahead of
this front will allow for the possibility of some patchy fog
over southwest Florida Thursday night and into Friday
morning. The second shortwave will dig into the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico on Friday and pass through the Florida
Peninsula on Saturday. This will help reinforce the surface
cold front, and allow for a bit more widespread convection
on Friday, with 20-40 percent chances of rain across the
Rain chances will taper off Friday night as the shortwave pushes
east of the region. A mid level ridge will then push into the
central US during the second half of the weekend and build into the
eastern seaboard early next week. This will support a strong surface
ridge developing over the eastern US, keeping seasonably warm and
generally dry conditions in place through the end of the forecast
Northwest winds will prevail across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today
behind a departing cold front. These winds will shift to the west and
southwest during Thursday ahead of our next approaching cold
front...currently expected to arrive over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
Dry northwest winds will prevail across the region behind a
departing cold front. Current forecasts keep relative humidity
above critical levels, and hence no red flag conditions are
expected. Winds shift to the west and southwest during Thursday
ahead of the next weak cold front...arriving across the
region during Friday.
Fog Potential...Patchy ground fog is expected away from the
coast early Thursday morning, however, no significant
areas of widespread or dense fog are currently anticipated.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 78 66 79 68 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 83 64 82 66 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 83 61 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 75 67 76 68 / 0 0 10 0
BKV 78 60 81 62 / 10 0 0 10
SPG 80 66 80 69 / 0 0 0 0
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...Mroczka
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
Covering Levy, Citrus, Sumter, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk,
Manatee, Hardee, Highlands, Desoto, Sarasota, Charlotte and Lee Counties...
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