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FXUS62 KTBW 231852
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
252 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
.SHORT TERM (Today and Monday)...
A potent upper cyclone continues to spin over northeastern Canada
with broad northwest flow from the Great Lakes and New England
into the southeast states. Weak upper ridging extends along the
northern Gulf Coast into the Southern Plains and Southern Rockies.
At the surface, a weak trough extends from the Great Lakes
southward across the Central Plains, with cool dry high pressure
settling in across the southeastern CONUS.
For the rest of today, pleasant weather conditions will continue
as high pressure slowly settles in across the northern Gulf Coast
and southeastern states. Highs will top out in the upper 70s to
near 80 degrees with clear skies and light winds.
For Monday, expect a continuation of today's weather.
Temperatures will start of on the cool side, though not as cold as
last night, with temperatures in the 40s and 50s again. Expect
colder temperatures in the low lying areas and along the Nature
Coast. Temperatures will rebound quickly into the afternoon with
highs perhaps a degree or two warmer than today, nearing 80
degrees over all of west central and southwest Florida.
.MID/LONG TERM (Monday night through Saturday)...
Mostly dry and seasonal weather expected into next weekend as
high pressure will remain in control over the weather across the
area. The high centered to the north will maintain a predominant E
to NE wind flow through the extended. Evening wind surges look to
push winds to near SCA levels during the overnight hours and
before sunrise. Rain chances will be slim for much of the week
although models are hinting at possible increase in moisture late
in the week, especially across southern zones, so a mention of at
least a 20 PoP is warranted as PWs near 1.5 inches from the Bay
High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s each day and
lows will be warming from the lower to mid 50s north to the upper
50s to mid 60s central and south on Monday night, to the 60s
through the rest of the week.
.AVIATION (18z TAFs)...
VFR conditions will prevail with northeast winds through the day.
Winds will become light and variable overnight with clear skies.
High pressure will remain north of the waters, with breezy
northeast winds over the next couple of days. This may generate
winds near cautionary levels for a few hours overnight tonight.
Weaker winds can be expected for Monday and Monday night as high
pressure slips a bit further south. However, from mid to late
week, high pressure will intensify along the Mid Atlantic coast,
with a tightened pressure gradient over the waters. This will lead
to several nights of easterly surge activity bringing periods of
cautionary level winds to the waters.
Low afternoon humidities will continue over the next couple of
days as dry high pressure influences the region. Despite high ERC
values in a few counties, winds look to remain rather light. Light
east to northeast winds will allow low level moisture to gradually
return through mid to late week, with afternoon humidities
increasing a bit each day. While some elevated fire danger may
exist today and Monday, humidities will remain well above critical
levels Tuesday through the end of the week.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 60 80 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 60 81 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 58 80 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 61 80 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 50 80 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 64 79 67 82 / 0 0 0 0
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Coastal
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/Austin
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...11/McKaughan
Covering Levy, Citrus, Sumter, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk,
Manatee, Hardee, Highlands, Desoto, Sarasota, Charlotte and Lee Counties...
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