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FXUS62 KTBW 240523
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
123 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds
will remain rather light and variable overnight and into Thursday
morning, with the sea breeze then turning winds onshore at the coast
in the afternoon. All terminals have a good chance for thunderstorms
at some point in the afternoon and evening, with VCTS in the forecast
starting around 17-18Z.
.Prev Discussion... /issued 814 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017/
After several mostly quiet days in terms of storms across
west-central and southwest Florida...a more typical summer
afternoon/evening storm pattern was seen today. Far northern
zones remained in a region with drier air aloft and stayed
mostly dry...however...from Pasco County southward...the
convection was active. As of the 815PM writing of this
discussion...the main line of convection has passed offshore
into the eastern Gulf, with only lingering lighter trailing
showers over left from the I-4 corridor southward down the
Suncoast. Will see this heavier storm activity only migrate
further offshore into the later evening hours...with
conditions drying out for the landmass.
AVIATION (24/00Z THROUGH 25/00Z)...
The last of the evening storms pull offshore from KTPA/KPIE
before 01Z. All terminals will see lingering showers
through 03z...but with generally VFR conditions. After
midnight...and through Thursday morning...mostly dry
conditions with no significant aviation concerns
anticipated. Thunderstorms coverage will once again ramp up
Thursday afternoon into the evening...with all terminals
seeing a decent potential for a passing heavy downpour and
Prev Discussion... /issued 255 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017/
SHORT TERM (Today and Thursday)...
A potent upper level trough continues across the Great
Lakes and New England with strong surface high pressure
building southeastward from Canada in the wake of a fast
moving cold front. Meanwhile, robust mid level ridging
extends across the Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains
and Gulf Coast. Weak surface high pressure extends across
the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic on the norther
periphery of two tropical features of note; tropical
depression Harvey, and a weak tropical wave located
somewhere between the Florida Straits and west of the
Florida Keys. Harvey will remain well west of the region,
bring the potential for extensive life threatening flooding
to portions of Texas and Louisiana. The tropical wave near
south Florida will be the primary feature of concern over
the next two days.
Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two are
in progress across mainly south Florida. This activity is
expected to persist and eventually become more widespread as
daytime heating continues and the seabreezes eventually
merge over southwest Florida. Given deepening tropical
airmass as depicted by precipitable water values in excess
of 2 inches, locally heavy rainfall may occur, especially
over areas south of I-4. As the tropical low lingers over
the area into tonight, showers and storms may be slow to
dissipate, but an eventual weakening of activity is forecast
by midnight with more activity developing offshore.
For tomorrow, as the low lifts northward across the
southern and central Florida peninsula, even more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected. The
combination of deep tropical moisture with the usual
afternoon seabreezes and weak lift associated with low
pressure should yield widespread rainfall coverage. Areas
that receive prolonged rains may experience localized
flooding, but widespread flooding is not currently expected.
With increased cloud cover and moisture, we should catch a
slight break from the heat as well, with upper 80s to lower
90s over the mid 90s highs we have seen of late.
Long Term (Thursday Night-Wednesday)...
A weak surface trough will be lingering over the area
through Monday, and then start to lift out to the NE with
weak ridging in place at the upper levels. Plenty of
uncertainty at the end of the period with respect to what
will evolve with Harvey currently forecast to move into the
northern Gulf coast region. Deep moisture will remain in
place across the area with the trough, and expect scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day across the
area. Temperatures near normal through the period. All
interests should monitor the tropics for the next few days
as conditions evolve.
An area of low pressure will linger near southern Florida
into tomorrow night, generating scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf waters. This feature
will lift to the northeast Friday into Saturday, imparting
drier conditions. Light winds and seas will persist through
the weekend, but winds may increase slightly over the
northern waters as this area of low pressure interacts with
a weak cold front over the southeastern U.S. early next
week. This could lead to increasing winds over the northern
waters Monday into Tuesday, but winds generally look to
remain below 15 knots. All eyes will remain on Harvey as
well early next week, though it looks to remain well to the
west at this time.
As a tropical wave lingers over the area, deep tropical moisture and
increased chances for rain will prevent any fire weather concerns
through the weekend. A drier weather pattern may take shape early
next week, but humidities still look to remain well above critical
levels through next week.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 91 78 89 78 / 60 30 60 40
FMY 89 77 87 77 / 80 50 70 50
GIF 91 75 90 76 / 60 30 70 30
SRQ 89 78 89 77 / 60 40 60 50
BKV 92 75 90 75 / 50 30 60 30
SPG 91 79 89 79 / 50 40 60 40
Covering Levy, Citrus, Sumter, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk,
Manatee, Hardee, Highlands, Desoto, Sarasota, Charlotte and Lee Counties...
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