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FXUS62 KTBW 240730
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
330 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017
.SHORT TERM (Today - Saturday)...
An amplified upper level pattern continues over the CONUS. A closed
upper low sits over the Oklahoma panhandle, while upper level
ridging extends from the Gulf of Mexico northeastward through the
Ohio River Valley. Another area of upper troughing sits over the
Bahamas and Cuba. This pattern shifts east through the end of the
week and into the weekend. On the surface, strong high pressure sits
just off the mid-Atlantic coast and ridges southwest over Florida.
This will keep an east-northeast wind flow and rain-free conditions
over Florida through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Another area of high pressure develops in the northeast Gulf of
Mexico by late Saturday evening and will keep benign weather
conditions over the area. Temperatures will remain a few degrees
above normal with daytime highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and
overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.
.Long Term (Sunday through next Thursday)...
A rather benign weather pattern in terms of sensible weather appears
ahead for the duration of the long term forecast period. Closed low
over the middle MS valley, with southern trough extension down to
the northern Gulf Coast will slowly approach later Saturday into
Saturday night. However...the southern extent of this energy is
shown by all global guidance to rapidly shear/stretch out as it
reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Weakening support for synoptic
lift...with meager height falls at best...along with plenty of
residual dry air...suggests we see little more than an increase in
mid/high clouds by Sunday morning. Can a few light showers still be
left to move ashore with this feature? Sure...can not completely
rule it out, but chances/coverage/impact appear low enough to leave
rain mention out of the forecast at this time. With whatever is left
of the trough axis passing by toward midday...the peak of diurnal
heating and sea-breeze development will be beneath increasing NVA,
keeping chances for isolated showers very low.
We repeat the entire pattern during the early portion of the week.
With the fast moving pattern...upper ridging again builds over the
peninsula for Monday...followed quickly by another approaching
shortwave along the northern Gulf coast Monday Night. This shortwave
looks to take most of its large scale forcing to the north of our
region...and any forcing that does exert influence this far south
will again be fighting considerable dry air. Once again...perhaps an
isolated and brief shower, but coverage will stay very low and best
to keep rain mention of the forecast.
Upper ridging returns by Tuesday Night...and amplifies further
Wednesday and Wednesday night in response to yet another significant
trough/strong height falls over the Southern Plains/Lower MS Valley.
Following its predecessors...this system will begin to shear off to
the northeast before reaching our forecast area. Since we are now
talking about 7 days out...details are difficult to forecast. Some
indication in the global ensembles that this system may have more
promise for shower coverage Thursday Night or Friday (especially
north of the I-4 corridor). Plenty of time to watch and adjust the
Temperatures for the majority of the long term period will feature
seasonable numbers. Low temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s. High
temperatures in the 80s inland and upper 70s to near 80 at the
beaches. Sea-breezes most days will drop temps back to the middle
70s at the beaches for the middle/late afternoon hours.
VFR at all terminals next 24 hours. Winds will remain east-northeast
at 10 knots or less overnight, then becoming breezy late Friday
morning into the afternoon with gusts near 20 knots possible. No
other aviation impacts expected.
Strong high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast ridges southwest
over the area. Gusty east-northeast winds will continue through the
early morning and a small craft advisory remains in effect until 5
AM for the outer coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River.
Winds will gradually diminish by the afternoon and will remain
around 10-15 knots through the evening. The high shifts southeast by
Sunday which will allow for the winds to veer to the southeast and
will still remain around 10-15 knots. Winds will be variable at 5-10
knots for the start of next week through mid week as another area of
high pressure sets up in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico.
Relative humidity values will remain above any critical fire weather
threshold through the period as high pressure advects abundant
moisture over the area. Winds are expected to remain below 15 mph as
well and no other fire weather concerns are anticipated through the
weekend and into next week.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 80 63 81 63 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 81 62 83 61 / 10 0 20 10
GIF 79 60 82 61 / 10 10 10 0
SRQ 80 61 80 62 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 79 57 83 58 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 79 65 80 65 / 0 0 10 10
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60
NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
FL out 20 to 60 NM.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...14/Mroczka
Covering Levy, Citrus, Sumter, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk,
Manatee, Hardee, Highlands, Desoto, Sarasota, Charlotte and Lee Counties...
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