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FXUS62 KTBW 241835
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
235 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016
.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Sunday)...
Moisture has increased a bit as expected with more coverage of
showers and storms than this time yesterday. The east coast
currently has storms developing as far north as Cocoa, while our
side is still limited to Manatee county southward. The earlier
update to bring higher rain chances northward into interior
Hillsborough and Polk counties still looks good.
Weak troughing aloft will continue over the northern Gulf and
north Florida through Sunday, but will have little actual impact
on our weather. A surface ridge extending across central Florida
remains very weak, so sea breeze circulations will continue to
dominate the surface wind flow and act as a catalyst for afternoon
thunderstorms on Sunday.
.MID/LONG TERM (Sunday Night-Saturday)...
Global models remain in good agreement for the start of next week
with a weak mid-level low across the southeast and surface high
pressure over the northeast. A closed low aloft will deepen over the
Great Lakes region through Tuesday, with cyclonic flow extending
southward over Florida. At the surface...the area of high pressure
over the northeast will shift into the Atlantic as a cold front
approaches northern Florida. Flow over the forecast area for Monday
and Tuesday will be rather week, with the west coast sea breeze
pushing inland each afternoon. Scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity can be expected both days, with the best chances over the
interior and southwest Florida region where the best convergence and
highest moisture will reside.
For Thursday into the start of next weekend, the ECMWF and GFS
continue to show different solutions. The ECMWF has a large cut-off
upper low dropping southward into the southeast for Friday before
moving back northward Saturday, while the GFS shows the low opening
up and lifting with ridging building eastward. At the surface, the
GFS brings a cold front into the northern part of the peninsula,
with high pressure and some relatively fall-like air (dew points in
the lower 60s) moving into our northern counties Thursday and Friday
as high pressure builds toward the east coast. The ECMWF has a cold
front as well, but then tries to develop a weak surface low off the
Carolina coast Thursday into Friday. For now, will show lower dew
points for the northern part of the forecast area for the end of the
week as both solutions show this, with further details to be worked
out in the coming days.
Mainly VFR next 24 hours. FMY, RSW, and PGD are all in favorable
locations for sea breeze storms through 21Z or so, and have
included tempo MVFR conditions for those terminals.
Weak high pressure will continue across the northeast Gulf waters
resulting in light winds and slight seas through the middle of
No fire weather concerns as humidity levels remain high.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 77 91 76 89 / 10 20 30 50
FMY 75 91 75 89 / 20 30 30 40
GIF 74 92 73 90 / 20 30 20 50
SRQ 76 91 75 88 / 10 20 20 40
BKV 72 92 72 90 / 10 30 30 50
SPG 78 90 78 88 / 10 20 30 40
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Jillson
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle
Covering Levy, Citrus, Sumter, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk,
Manatee, Hardee, Highlands, Desoto, Sarasota, Charlotte and Lee Counties...
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