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FXUS62 KTBW 231231
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
831 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018
VFR conditions expected through the period with light N/NE
winds becoming N/NW in the afternoon near the coast.
.Prev Discussion... /issued 335 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018/
SHORT TERM (Today-Saturday)...
Broad troughing remains over the eastern half of the country with
ridging to our west. At the surface, high pressure remains over the
southeast, with a low-level northerly flow over the forecast area.
For today, this surface high will shift more overhead as the ridge
aloft continues to build eastward toward the region. As heights rise
a bit, we will see our high temperatures go up by several degrees
compared with yesterday, topping out in the lower to mid 70s. Combine
that with dew points in the 30s and 40s and we are looking at a
really nice afternoon across the region.
Ridging aloft builds even farther eastward tonight through Saturday,
with the surface high shifting just offshore the Florida east coast.
This pattern shift will lead to a further moderating trend, with
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s and higher dew points compared with
today. Really no weather concerns to start the weekend.
LONG TERM (Saturday Night-Thursday)...
Aloft - A trough pushes onshore the Pacific Northwest and deepens
down to CA as it tracks east...cutting off a low over the Desert
Southwest. In response a ridge from the western Gulf of Mexico
northward through the Mississippi Vally slides east as the northern
end pivots...stretching from Cuba in a northeasterly direction along
the eastern seaboard. Surface - Atlantic high pressure across FL to
the Gulf of Mexico gives way as a backdoor cold front moves through
the state Mon...weakening as it does then dissipates in Cuba Tue.
Canadian high pressure builds down the eastern states to the Gulf
Wed then slips offshore Thu.
Prevailing northwesterly flow at mid and upper levels will provide
generally dry and stable conditions. Although the front Mon will
support some low rain chances mainly for interior locations. South
and southwest winds shift to northeasterly as the front traverses the
area and becomes briefly robust...mainly on coastal waters. As the
high pressure builds in the winds become easterly then southeasterly
and slackens enough to allow afternoon sea breezes. Temperatures
just below to near normal cool slightly in the wake of the front
then warm to just above normal.
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light and
variable winds overnight will increase and become more northerly in
the morning and then more north-northwest or northwest at coastal
sites in the afternoon.
Winds will continue to diminish this morning, with no headlines
expected for this afternoon and beyond into early next week as high
pressure moves overhead and then shifts out into the western
Atlantic. The next chance for increased winds looks to be Monday
night, when an easterly surge could lead to cautionary-level winds.
Red Flag conditions are expected again for portions of the forecast
area this afternoon, as ERC values remain high and long durations of
critically low relative humidity values are also expected. Some
slight improvement is expected for Saturday afternoon, but we could
still be looking at Red Flag conditions. Improving conditions are
then expected for Sunday and beyond.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 70 54 76 62 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 75 53 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 73 51 79 59 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 71 52 75 61 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 71 44 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 70 58 75 65 / 0 0 0 0
FL...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Highlands-
Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Pinellas-
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
to 60 NM.
Covering Levy, Citrus, Sumter, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk,
Manatee, Hardee, Highlands, Desoto, Sarasota, Charlotte and Lee Counties...
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