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The latest weather warnings from NWS Ruskin, Tampa Bay Area

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FXUS62 KTBW 171248
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
848 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...MORNING LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECAST...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A FAIRLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE
REGION. READINGS IN MOST PLACES FELL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
SPG ONLY GOT DOWN TO 78 SO FAR THIS MORNING. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS TAKING SOME ADVANTAGE OF THIS MOISTURE...PRODUCING A
THIN LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA.

MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BEST CONVECTION INLAND ONCE
TEMPERATURES GET INTO THE MID 80S. HAVE MADE AN ADJUSTMENT TO SAY
CHANCE FOR STORMS INSTEAD OF SLIGHT CHANCE AND HAVE ALSO ADDED IN
GUSTY WINDS TO THE GRIDS...AS SOUNDING INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONGER DOWNBURSTS. ALSO HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
FORECAST HIGHS NEAR THE CURRENT RAIN LINE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE BAY AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHILE MAINLY VFR WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST TERMINALS. DURING THE AFTERNOON
SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY WILL AFFECT SARASOTA...TAMPA AND SAINT PETERSBURG
TERMINALS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. VFR
CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS ADDITIONAL LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.


&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS OUR WATERS AS HAVE
DISSIPATING AND STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. EXACT
LOCATION OF BAND OF SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON HOW THIS FRONT SHIFTS
ABOUT TODAY. HAVE KEPT IN THE BEST CHANCES...ONLY SLIGHT...FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. AS CURRENT BAND HAS
NO LIGHTNING AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE WATERS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSTANT...HAVE REMOVED STORM WORDING FROM FORECAST FOR THE GULF
WATERS. MAY STILL SEE SOMETHING OVER THE BAY...BUT AGAIN JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE THERE.

AS FOR WINDS...THE LIGHT GRADIENT HAS WINDS OVER THE OBSERVING
SITES MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS TO START PICKING UP
AGAIN SUNDAY AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S..


&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RJS
AVIATION...JCM



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